The biggest debunker of conspiracy theories has to be what the British call ‘the thirty year rule’  for the declassification of secret documents. It is not that the released documents reveal the truth (the really juicy ones are locked up for far longer); it is, rather, the realization that the behind-the-scenes machinations of government way back then were far more chaotic than anything we imagined at the time. Conspiracies need thought.

So, my conspiracy theory about Ireland’s mammoth tax bill  to pharmaceutical giant Perrigo towards the end of last year will probably be utterly disproven sometime in 2048. But, by then I will be either dead or too old to care. So, here goes.

The (undisputed) story:

In 2013 the (undisputed) Irish Elan Corp sold its interest in Tysabri, a multiple sclerosis drug, to Biogen Idec Inc for a lot of money. A few months later (undisputed) US corporation Perrigo Inc entered into an inversion transaction with Elan. The transaction involved the smaller Elan achieving ownership of Perrigo, with the Perrigo shareholders receiving a majority of the shares of Elan. The principal  (undisputed) advantage to Perrigo was a reduction in future tax. This would be achieved by (calculated conjecture) including future non-US acquisitions under the Irish parent, thus bypassing the then draconian US tax system, and engineering debt from the US to the Irish parent. The latter  would reduce US taxable income at 35%, and increase Irish taxable income at rates of between 0% and 25%, with the Irish foot secretly holding the scale at the lower end thanks to leprecaunish Irish wheezes such as the Double Irish and Single Malt schemes ( the Irish clearly chose names they were convinced could never be traced back to them).

In December 2018 it became known that the Perrigo group (Elan had very cleverly changed its name to that of its new subsidiary) had been issued a bill by the Irish tax authorities for  €1.64 billion. The justification was the reclassification of  the profit on sale of the intellectual property to Biogen from trading income (somewhere between 0% and 12.5% tax) to capital gains (33%). Perrigo promptly announced  that  it was suddenly hard to run a US customer-service organization from the other side of the pond. It is now rumoured that the group is threatening shelving plans for expansion in Dublin unless, presumably, their appeal against the tax assessment is successful.

And now, the conspiracy theory:

As opposed to the $13 billion tax claim from Apple forced upon Ireland by the EU (poor Ireland), the issue  here is what one commentator called Tax 101 – the party trick of tax advisers worldwide walking the tax classification tightrope between capital gains  and trading income, ready at all times to pull the tax-saving bunny out of their moneybags. The sale of the IP was several months before Perrigo merged into Elan. It is to be presumed that Perrigo ordered a tax due diligence, and even if some bits and pieces were obscured by the Guinness, had some inkling of a potential €1.64 billion tax bill. Either they received an utterly obese indemnity from Elan’s shareholders, or there was a clear understanding from somewhere that lreland’s long-standing open-sewer policy of encouraging American investment at all moral cost meant that the authorities could be expected to stay out to a liquid lunch.

Fast forward to the beginning of 2018, and the US had a new tax law . The complementary regimes of Foreign-Derived Intangible Income on certain income of US companies from abroad, and Global Intangible Low Taxed Income of non-US subsidiaries, established a planning benchmark US effective tax rate  in either case of  around 13% . Add to that new inversion rules and restrictions on interest deductibility, and the question that comes to the befuddled mind is: ‘Why Ireland?’

So, what does a country do when its economic raison d’etre is disappearing down the  sewer? It takes a leaf out of Donald Trump’s book – and thinks protectionism. But, in the case of Ireland – other than its beer and whiskey industries – there was precious little of its domestic economy to protect. Other  than its tax advantage, that is.

In October 2018 the Irish budget included, as expected, Controlled Foreign Corporation provisions as required by the EU (see Tax Break 1/1/19). What wasn’t expected was the early imposition of an Exit Tax (which was not due until 2020). Companies wanting to expatriate from Ireland will now face a 12.5% ‘capital gains tax’ – or, in other words, they are pretty well stuck.

All this opened the door for the Irish Treasury to take off its kid gloves, and treat captive foreign companies just like any other. The Irish seem to be saying to Perrigo: ‘You can check out any time you like. But you can never leave.’ I wonder how many Irish-Americans there are in California.